Thread: MMR spread around Patch 2.6.18 - with graphs

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  1. #1
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    MMR spread around Patch 2.6.18 - with graphs

    Back in November I extracted stats for patch 2.1.9 (mid sept) and a histogram of the MMR spread for that week was generated. Within that week just under 1million matchID were recorded (983,921 to be exact).
    https://plus.google.com/u/0/b/112989...ts/fwtyoFvdXnj

    The idea was to re-run the scripts that generated this a month or so later, especially since an upcoming MMR compression and a reasonably significant patch was due.
    Unfortunately the XML access went down and has been down ever since.

    It is starting to come back up …


    The idea is simple: what is the active mmr distribution and the best way to determine that is to determine who played for a given week

    Examining patch 2.1.9 from 16th Sept 2011
    * 983,921 uniq matchID's were recorded.
    * 10,000 matchID's at random were chosen
    * This produced 64,889 player ID's
    * 56,390 were uniq
    * those with > 5matches were then chosen

    The MMR for these were extracted and the results plotted (with a normal distribution overlay).


    OLD MMR PLOT





    Fastforward to now and a similar process was applied to patch 2.6.18 (ie 7th Sept 2012)
    * 584359 uniq matchID's were recorded
    * 10,000 matchId's at random were chosen
    * This produced 60,747 player ID's
    * 49,017 were uniq.
    * those with > 20matches were then chosen

    Out of this 20,000 players were chosen and their stats collected (mostly due to at present the api site throttled me to 2000 queries per hour and player stats can only be individually queried not in a group)


    NEW MMR PLOT




    What can be seen

    1. uniq matches has fallen, 60% compared to a year ago.
    Since then however 2 new Garena's have spawned (korea and CIS) so this will account for some of the fall.

    2. The MMR curve has a more classical shape as oppose to the cliff that was seen pre-compression
    It could be deduced that the aim of the compression has, to some extent, been achieved.

    3. The mean and SD hasn't really varied
    So while the compression was … annoying, the distribution soon fell back into place around the old curve but with the higher mmr being more tapered.


    https://plus.google.com/u/0/11298949...ts/3fXjXZ9WS7t



    --edit--

    Couple of additional stats:

    Hellborne:Legion win percentage: 50.8% : 49.2%
    so fairly even

    bloodlust resulting in a team win: 60.4%

    Also MMR on an Scurve to help identify what percentile you are in
    Last edited by Naib; 09-18-2012 at 09:23 PM.

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  2. #2
    Cool read : D. Thanks for the info.

  3. #3
    awesome
    might post the % of players in each bracket (like <1200, 1300, 1400, 1500, 1600, 1700, 1800, 1900, >1900)?

    edit: but sad to see games played decreased by 60% on international client

  4. #4
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    not decrease by 60%, sorry wording.
    They are 60% of what they were a year ago (ie a 40% reduction). This can be partly explained by Garena splits BUT not fully.

    ill get % in those brackets shortly

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  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Diablo`` View Post
    edit: but sad to see games played decreased by 60% on international client
    It hasn't fallen by 60%. It's fallen to 60% of what it was before. That is 983,921 x 0,6 = 584359 (roughly)
    The human brain is a wonderful thing. It starts working the moment you are born, and never stops until you stand up to speak in public.

  6. #6
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    What were the maximum/minimum mmr recorded?

  7. #7
    Wow this very informative. Going to be sharing this with my friends! Thanks!

  8. #8
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    max: 2034.46
    min: 1035.08

    > 1900: 0.1%
    1800 - 1900: 1.0%
    1700 - 1800: 5.9%
    1600 - 1700: 20.6%
    1500 - 1600: 37.6%
    1400 - 1500: 24.9%
    1300 - 1400: 7.8%
    1200 - 1300: 1.7%
    < 1200: 0.4%

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  9. #9
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    Hehe, that's heaps cool! I love the data Thanks Naib!

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  10. #10
    I wonder why there's that spike around 1300. That's where I'm stuck, incidentally.
    Quote Originally Posted by Watercat
    Carcharhinus is right.
    Are you a 1000-1450 MMR player who can't manage to climb out of your bracket? Check out: http://tinyurl.com/LowerMMRs and type /j clan team lowmmr in game to join the clan channel and find similar players to team up with. Please no high MMR players who want to carry us. It takes too long at 0.5mmr per game and defeats the purpose.

  11. #11
    This graph just shows how the MMR system is completely detrimental to new players.

    A total noob is ranked higher than 50% of the HoN population before playing a single game? He's going to have a great time in his first few games.

  12. #12
    Incredibly useful info. Glad to know us 17xxs are somewhere between the 93rd-99th percentile. As a 1730 that would place me somewhere around 95th. Top 5% ain't bad.

  13. #13
    oh jesus i'm in the top .1%. take that world.

  14. #14
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    Thanks!

  15. #15
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    @Naib Do you think it would be possible to release code or parts of code? Perhaps not on forums, but wia pm or similar? If that is not possible, could you explain your data reduction process or link to explanation?
    I am finding that most of the information in modification and mechanics parts of forums (the ones that deal with syntax) are outdated and/or incomplete and your contribution could be very helpful.
    Big thread of statistical goodies (update - Dec 4) - http://bit.ly/U7Z9Hi

    Alt avatars price change http://bit.ly/V2wXIz ł AltAvatars price change mod http://bit.ly/NwOp7n
    BangNinja mod fix http://bit.ly/U2VgYU ł Breaky & Zyori in love http://bit.ly/PytPAi
    Quickfix for linux and mac 2.6.11 http://bit.ly/Udqwmw ł Highest gpm in first 20 min calculated http://bit.ly/Qf4Q5P

  16. #16
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    Thanks Naib.
    Legend.

  17. #17
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    Good job, sir. Give this guy a minor totem at least, WTF!
    Every hero below has one or more new ability effects, Check them out:
    FESTER: http://forums.heroesofnewerth.com/showthread.php?492343
    FRIGID: http://forums.heroesofnewerth.com/showthread.php?488679
    FAITH: http://forums.heroesofnewerth.com/showthread.php?456864
    FANGHORN: http://forums.heroesofnewerth.com/showthread.php?487251
    FAUST: http://forums.heroesofnewerth.com/showthread.php?487077
    FENDER: http://forums.heroesofnewerth.com/showthread.php?453333

  18. #18
    e-peen just got bigger.

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Naib View Post
    max: 2034.46
    min: 1035.08

    > 1900: 0.1%
    1800 - 1900: 1.0%
    1700 - 1800: 5.9%
    1600 - 1700: 20.6%
    1500 - 1600: 37.6%
    1400 - 1500: 24.9%
    1300 - 1400: 7.8%
    1200 - 1300: 1.7%
    < 1200: 0.4%
    We all know merrick has an mmr of 2500.
    EndGoodSmith, Cruel Dictator of the HoN Forums

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Carcharhinus View Post
    I wonder why there's that spike around 1300. That's where I'm stuck, incidentally.
    you are looking at the wrong graph, the second (green) one is the up-to-date one, the first one is 1 year old.

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