Blacksmith MutliCast looks like hack

[themasterat]

Well in this game when I played, blacksmith multicasted like 99% of the time, and I am not exagerating... When i tell him you hack, I suddenly see the first not multicast.. I don't know if it's a hack or if he's just extremely lucky but it kinda screwed the game a bit, of course a well fed chronos turned the tides ;)

if some admins could look this up it would be great! and give me feedback also!

thanks!

Match Id: 29911726

The blacksmith player was : cawkeWoW

[alliednoob]

he's suppose to, it's unlike that he will only 1 cast u...
it's like the true random iPod shuffle, because it sometimes randomly repeated songs, which made people think it was random (fail) so they had to tweak it to make it seem "more" random.
also rule 8

"- When cast, has a 25/40/50% chance to impact at least twice, 0/20/25% chance to impact at least three times, 0/0/12.5% chance to impact four times.
- Decreases cooldown by 3/6/9 seconds."
-HonDB

he has a 87.5% chance to multicast at lvl 3 ult...

[pyrated]

didn't bother watching, since:

1. you didn't see every cast
2. even if he got a multicast on every spell, that's entirely possible
3. people are terrible at recognizing randomness (and pseudo-randomness)

random stuff sometimes happen a lot, sometimes happens a little, and sometimes happens half the time. It's random. That's the point

[ElementUser]

@OP: No, he was just really lucky.


he has a 87.5% chance to multicast at lvl 3 ult...

No he doesn't.

http://forums.heroesofnewerth.com/showthread.php?t=67481


It's because the probabilities are consecutive in the code.

Whenever you cast fireball, you get fireball #1 (since you always get a fireball)
Half of the time you cast fireball #1, you get fireball #2.
Half of the times you get fireball #2, you also get fireball #3.
Half of the times you get fireball #3, you also get fireball #4.

Thus,
There's a 12.5% chance to get fireball #4 for exactly 4x multicast.
There's a 25% chance to get fireball #3, for at least 3x multicast, but 12.5% is actually a 4x multicast, so the probability for exactly 3x multicast is 12.5%.
There's a 50% chance to get fireball #2, for at least 2x multicast, but 25% is actually 3x multicast or more, so the probability for exactly 2x multicast is 25%

Or, if we put it in a table:
Cast number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Fireball #1 (1=yes) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Fireball #2 (1=yes) 1 1 1 1
Fireball #3 (1=yes) 1 1
Fireball #4 (1=yes) 1
Total fireballs 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 4