HoN Werewolf V3 - Game Over

[Vahn]

Werewolf V3 - OT 3.0
This is the day time discussion thread for Werewolf, during the night I will be locking this thread. I'll send a PM reminder to everyone when each day commences.
For all the rules and Information about the game please refer to the sign-up thread (http://forums.heroesofnewerth.com/showthread.php?t=249047)

In this game we are having a semi-closed set up, which means some possible combinations will be listed:

Combination 1
9 Saplings
1 Scout
1 Jeraziah
1 Keeper of the Forest
1 Imps
1 Puppet Master
1 Madman
1 Succubus

Combination 2
9 Saplings
1 Scout
1 Witch Slayer
1 Jeraziah
1 Imps
1 Puppet Master
1 Madman
1 Succubus

Combination 3
9 Saplings
1 Scout
1 Blacksmith
1 Jeraziah
1 Imps
1 Puppet Master
1 Madman
1 Devourer

Combination 4
9 Saplings
1 Scout
1 Insane Scout
1 Keeper of the Forest
1 Imps
1 Puppet Master
1 Madman
1 Devourer

Current Player List:

Bobble (Sapling)
Broodje (Sapling) - Lynched on day 2
ElementUser (Imp) - Lynched on day 5
Emiya (Devourer) - Lynched on day 6
Evil_Andrex (Madman) - Lynched on day 4
Fetyukov (Keeper of the Forest) - Killed during night 4
FrOzEn_sKill (Sapling) - Killed during night 5
GrimmShado (Sapling)
Lucian01 (Sapling) - Killed during night 2
MichaelBurge (Puppet Master) - Lynched on day 3
Nolifer (Sapling)
NomesWisdom (Insane Scout) - Killed during night 1
Smurf3tte (Sapling)
SpaceSavage (Sapling) - Lynched on day 1
YawningAngel (Sapling)
Yukari (Scout) - Killed during night 3


Votes

Remember to highlight your text in Lime when you are making your vote, day time ends when anyone has (N + 1) / 2 votes. N is number of remaining players.
Current votes required to end day:

Links

Day 1
Night 1
Day 2
Night 2
Day 3
Night 3
Day 4
Night 4
Night 5
Day 6
Game Over!


Attention all players
No editing posts, if you posted any want to add something then double post. If you see spelling mistakes just leave them unless its so bad people won't understand what you said.

Attention dead players and people not participating
Strictly no posting at all, I do not wish for the game to be side tracked like it was several times last game.
Failure to follow will result in me deleting the post. If you continuously ignore this rule you will receive a spamming infraction.

Reminder to moderators
Please do not close/open the thread, post while it is locked or tamper with other players posts.
While in this thread please act as if you do not have moderation access.

[Vahn]

Day 1 has begun

To ensure everyone is on the same level, the hellbourne do know who eachother is and what their roles are.

If anyone didn't receive the PM with their role please message me and I will re-send it to you.

[ElementUser]

Vote SpaceSavage

SpaceSavage (http://forums.heroesofnewerth.com/member.php?u=1139683) has also reported this item.

Reason:
Yukari will never truly love you

Get lynched.

[MichaelBurge]

A true disciple of Michael Burge, Yukari is a treasured soul.

Vote SpaceSavage

[Smurf3tte]

Vote Lucian01

[ElementUser]

For those who are wondering, SpaceSavage reported my Rebecca Black post http://forums.heroesofnewerth.com/showpost.php?p=13392565&postcount=2 for "trolling" and gave the reason I stated above.

~.~

You will regret doing that action in the past!

:SymbolOfRage:

[Smurf3tte]

Personal bias and outside influence shouldn't effect games, it's too meta!

[ElementUser]

Too bad.

:blac:

[Yukari]

Exam today, don't expect many posts in the next 24 hours

[YawningAngel]

Is this the post where I soft claim blacksmith?

[ElementUser]

No, stop trolling

~.~

[YawningAngel]

*hard claim Blacksmith

Is Blacksmith even in our lineup?

[Yukari]

Is this the post where I soft claim blacksmith?

Gentlemen, behold:



:scou::scou::scou::scou::scou:http://www.rankopedia.com/CandidatePix/62770.gif

Yes, I'm hard claiming.

[Smurf3tte]

Unvote Lucian01; Vote YawningAngel

Whoop

[ElementUser]

Isn't it too early to tell?

Nobody even died yet. Unless you know, you really do copy what Yukari did last game.

:blac:

[ElementUser]

Oh my post was supposed to respond to YawningAngel's.

[YawningAngel]

Gentlemen, behold:



:scou::scou::scou::scou::scou:http://www.rankopedia.com/CandidatePix/62770.gif

Yes, I'm hard claiming.
Bullshit, you'd never hard claim scout first day.

[Yukari]

First order of business: scout this yawningscumdouchebag

[YawningAngel]

If I were HB, I'd hardly be doing this.

[Smurf3tte]

That's the stupidest argument I've ever heard, and doesn't even make sense in context. My vote stands.

[Yukari]

Yawning is noob, hardly news. I mean that ****-up last game made me lol so hard

[Octavia]

Oh dear the role-mongering has already begun.

I think ElementUser is employing underhanded friendship biases to further his own goals.

[Octavia]

Any arguments involving sources outside of the game thread are at the very least questionable.

[YawningAngel]

If I were Hellbourne, I'd have to be remarkably stupid to hold up a big sign saying "Lynch me" unless it were a double-bluff to become a 'confirmed' townie.

[Yukari]

Any arguments involving sources outside of the game thread are at the very least questionable.

Ele is very vulnerable, and I must rice-farm and carry him to victory. Unless he backstabs me with nighthound. Well played Ele, well played.

[Octavia]

If I were Hellbourne, I'd have to be remarkably stupid to hold up a big sign saying "Lynch me" unless it were a double-bluff to become a 'confirmed' townie.On the contrary, there's simply no need to perform any kind of looped logic if you were truly innocent. All you're doing is creating pointless posts for the sake of it, which is patently scummy.

[YawningAngel]

And to what end would I do this?

[Broodje]

Vote: No Lynching

rather pointless first day

[Yukari]

Vote: No Lynching

rather pointless first day

So who wants to enlighten this little lost lamb?

[Smurf3tte]

Vote: No Lynching

rather pointless first day
/head desk

[Broodje]

I'm a sheep, you on the other hand... Who are you anyways?

Never heard of this Jukary.

[Broodje]

Unvote: No lynching
Vote: Smurf3tte

[Octavia]

And to what end would I do this?
Your own stupidity perhaps? You already proved its existence last game, this is merely another rendition of it.

[Yukari]

So does Broodje remind anyone else of yawning from last game?

[YawningAngel]

Be more specific.

[Octavia]

So does Broodje remind anyone else of yawning from last game?
Not really. What makes you say this?

[GrimmShado]

Hmmm Vahn is there a way to know who changed names for this game? I'm Evildrake btw

So explain your motives yukari. I'm not voting you today anyway.

[Yukari]

Not really. What makes you say this?

Yawning: Don't vote anyone first day
PersonX: Not voting first day is bad
Yawning : Vote: X

[Vahn]

Everyone but you and burge is using the same name they played the last game with.
Burge was Zwai last game.

You can view their profile and go show all threads started by them, the server doesnt update the list correctly when changing your name. Though that doesn't work if its a different account.

[Octavia]

Yawning: Don't vote anyone first day
PersonX: Not voting first day is bad
Yawning : Vote: X
I see.

Are you hard claiming Scout Yukari?

[Yukari]

I see.

Are you hard claiming Scout Yukari?

Yes, unless the answer is no, but it's not. Or is it? Yes, no. Maybe?

Yes.

6/8 - u chance: I actually get some time to collect some information under the wings of jerry,
1/8 - u chance: I'm horribly screwed, but KoTF will reveal some info

1/8 chance: Mother****ing crazy scooto.

2u chance: I get brutally buttrapped by HB's bloodbuddies while jerry/kotf afks.

[Nolifer]

I'm a sheep, you on the other hand... Who are you anyways?

Never heard of this Jukary.
You are misguided indeed.

The only user name you're allowed to spell incorrectly is Bobbles.

[Vexium]

i'm hard, claim.

vote: YawningAngel

because the gone-missing-stunt you pulled at the end of last game royally disappointed us all :|

and bubbles fooled you guys at the end so easily last game. let's not let that happen again.

and jesus christ already page 3 and barely any content. WELP HERE GOES NOTHING

[Lucian01]

I am not a sapling this game.

[Yukari]

i'm hard, claim.

vote: YawningAngel

because the gone-missing-stunt you pulled at the end of last game royally disappointed us all :|

and bubbles fooled you guys at the end so easily last game. let's not let that happen again.

and jesus christ already page 3 and barely any content. WELP HERE GOES NOTHING

Barely any content? Really?

[Vexium]

by content i mean posts in which i can discern alignment :> the small-talk is titillating, of course

[SpaceSavage]

Vote: Smurf3tte

[Yukari]

Vote: SpaceSavage

[Bobble]

Oh Vex, I was just too skillful, with my proness, and it's fine Yukari, I don't think Jerry or KotF will be as bad as Chuth (no offence), if he truly believes you, he'll keep you safe.

And there has been a lot of interesting news this day, I say we keep this train rolling!

[Yukari]

Inb4 we lynch jere first day then I die tonight. Gatta keep the scout-dies-first-day streak going

[Evil_Andrex]

We musn't lose our streak for scout! No redemption for scout. ;) I still don't get what happened near the end of the last.

[SpaceSavage]

meta gaming... BAD BAD :(

[Nolifer]

I am not a sapling this game.
I see, you're basically saying there's a 4/7 chance that you're hb?

Vote Lucian01

[ElementUser]

Oh dear the role-mongering has already begun.

I think ElementUser is employing underhanded friendship biases to further his own goals.


Any arguments involving sources outside of the game thread are at the very least questionable.

While this is true, I will vote lynch SpaceSavage until he's gone (or killed by HB, whichever comes first) just because of this reason. Doesn't matter whether he's Legion or HB or what my role is, friend or foe he shall go down!

Yes I will take it that far.

:)

:soulr:

[ElementUser]

Yes, unless the answer is no, but it's not. Or is it? Yes, no. Maybe?

Yes.

6/8 - u chance: I actually get some time to collect some information under the wings of jerry,
1/8 - u chance: I'm horribly screwed, but KoTF will reveal some info

1/8 chance: Mother****ing crazy scooto.

2u chance: I get brutally buttrapped by HB's bloodbuddies while jerry/kotf afks.

Just a question - what is a "u" in "u chance"?

O.o

[Smurf3tte]

Inb4 we lynch jere first day then I die tonight. Gatta keep the scout-dies-first-day streak going
:|

I'm getting BAD VIBES from you. BAD, BAD VIBES.

[Vexium]

i second those vibes

[Evil_Andrex]

I don't get how the chances that Yukari proposed are supposed to even do...

[Lucian01]

I sure do hope we get to see some good power role plays this game! The last two were a real disappoint in regards to legion power roles. But then again, how awesome would it be if we lost another scout tonight?

[Emiya]

Yes, unless the answer is no, but it's not. Or is it? Yes, no. Maybe?

Yes.

6/8 - u chance: I actually get some time to collect some information under the wings of jerry,
1/8 - u chance: I'm horribly screwed, but KoTF will reveal some info

1/8 chance: Mother****ing crazy scooto.

2u chance: I get brutally buttrapped by HB's bloodbuddies while jerry/kotf afks.
And if Succubus uses mesmerize? :succ:

[GrimmShado]

Stil processing all the nonsense.

[Evil_Andrex]

Nonsense, that is nonsense, there is no nonsense here, if there isn't any nonsense then everything is sense.

Now where were we... who are you again?

[Octavia]

Nonsense, that is nonsense, there is no nonsense here, if there isn't any nonsense then everything is sense.

Now where were we... who are you again?
More active lurking.

Yawning + Andrex most suspicious at the moment.

[Yukari]

And if Succubus uses mesmerize? :succ:

Then I request that I be killed under a cherry blossom

[MichaelBurge]

To get things started, we should all agree on whether we want to lynch somebody the first day or not. We don't have any real information, but I'm not really for no-lynching considering HB get a free kill every day.

If we've decided to lynch someone, we can either do a frivolous lynch against SpaceSavage or try to lynch the popular forum users that are more likely to be Hellbourne(Hellbourne are required to be more active than Legion;big-name forum-users are more active; we should lynch big-names).

Roadkill like SpaceSavage and possibly GrimmShado are more likely to stall the game for everyone with their indecisive voting and make it more difficult to get anything done; while big-names like Yukari, me, NomesWisdom, etc. are more likely to be Hellbourne.

I choose the roadkill and keep my previous vote.

I also suggest everyone post whether they'd be willing to lynch the first day, and what their train of thought would be for a target(frivolous reasons, big-names, small-names, etc.)

[Lucian01]

Not a big fan of giving hb a free day, especially if we end up lynching whoever we planned on lynching on day 1 anyway. I'm still undecided on who specially should be lynched though.

[Bobble]

I doubt we should vote off a big name. The main problem with that is, it's a bigger risk. Yes, we could eliminate a HB, but at this point, with less to go on and more Legion, it's more likely we'll kill someone who was gonna be a great asset to us. It's a lot less risk, but a less reward, if we vote off a little name.

[Octavia]

No point killing big names because Scout can Scout big names. Kill little names who are inactive. Killing inactives is the best approach for the first few days as if everyone is active determining scum is ezpz.

[YawningAngel]

To get things started, we should all agree on whether we want to lynch somebody the first day or not. We don't have any real information, but I'm not really for no-lynching considering HB get a free kill every day.

If we've decided to lynch someone, we can either do a frivolous lynch against SpaceSavage or try to lynch the popular forum users that are more likely to be Hellbourne(Hellbourne are required to be more active than Legion;big-name forum-users are more active; we should lynch big-names).

Roadkill like SpaceSavage and possibly GrimmShado are more likely to stall the game for everyone with their indecisive voting and make it more difficult to get anything done; while big-names like Yukari, me, NomesWisdom, etc. are more likely to be Hellbourne.

I choose the roadkill and keep my previous vote.

I also suggest everyone post whether they'd be willing to lynch the first day, and what their train of thought would be for a target(frivolous reasons, big-names, small-names, etc.)
Logic error: Big-name forum users are not more likely to be Hellbourne.

[MichaelBurge]

Logic error: Big-name forum users are not more likely to be Hellbourne.

The phrase "likely" implies a probability. A probability is always with respect to a universe of possible events(which is why statements like "What is the probability that X will happen?" are meaningless by themselves)

There are two different possible universes of events here, each giving rise to a different question:
1.) Given a big-name forum user, is he more likely to be Hellbourne or Legion?
2.) Given that a forum user is Hellbourne, is he more likely to be a big-name forum user?

#1(what you were saying) is clearly false; there are vastly more Legion players than Hellbourne, so even if big-names had an advantage they would still be more likely to be Legion.

My claim is not that big-names like Roger or me are more likely to be Hellbourne than Legion, but that the probability of being Hellbourne is higher than for small-names. Specifically,

"The probability that a given forum user is Hellbourne is monotone-increasing with respect to popularity"

This claim isn't directly enough to form an argument that we should lynch any big-name in particular, because it applies for individuals and is too weak. However, knowing that Hellbourne are more concentrated in the list of big-names than otherwise makes the entire group of us a better lynch target than the entire group of roadkill inactives.

To deduce this from my claim, fix a distribution representing the popularity of each player, choose a player P, recall the notation P(A | B) is read as "The probability of A given B", and recall Bayes' Theorem:

P(A | B) = (P(B | A) * P(A))/P(B)

Here, A is the event "P is Hellbourne", and B is the event "P was chosen from the distribution". That is, "What is the probability that a player is Hellbourne given how popular he is?"

P(A) has as its universe the set of all players: P(A) = 4/16 or 25%
P(B) depends on the subjective "popularity index"
P(B | A) is related to my claim: that this quantity is maximized over the set of big-name forum users.

Notice that P(A) is a constant, P(B) is constant given our player P, and so the only point of dispute is number P(B |A). But this is exactly what my claim says:

If you believe that Vahn is even slightly more likely to give Hellbourne to an active regular forum user compared to inactive filler, then Bayes' Theorem claims the best probability for lynching a Hellbourne is the most popular one.

As evidence for this, I quote Vahn:


In order to sign up for Werewolf you must be an active member on the forums and be prepared to not go inactive

Disagree with my claim if you will, but Michael Burge's logic is absolute - he does not make logic errors.

With that said, we need a list of the most popular forum users:

Tier 1: The most valuable members of the forum
* ElementUser: Recall that Vahn is used to moderating Mechanics; ElementUser would be at the top of a popularity list for him
* Yukari: 2nd only to Element due to his Senior GM position, moderatorship, and general activity
* Michael Burge: His Divine Eminence Michael Burge occupies a foremost position in the minds of anyone even slightly important
* NomesWisdom: Roger receives a higher spot on the list than me only because of my long absence.
* Bobble: One of the oldest members, Bobble's name is surely known

Tier 2: Tier 2 members don't get a description from Michael Burge...
* Vexium
* Nolifer
* Fetyukov
* Evil_Andrex
* Emiya: ... except for Emiya, faithful disciple of the Lord Burge; rejected by his peers for his beliefs, he stands strong in the knowledge that his God was correct.

Tier 3: The bottom-of-the-bottom. Only used to fill the game so we finally get started
* Grimm_Shadow: Uneducated and incompetent; he plays follow-the-leader and has no notable opinions of his own
* SpaceSavage: Useless trash; run him over so our game goes faster
* Smurf3tte: Maybe you used to be valuable on FACTORY, but not any more

Even though the probabilities say I should lynch Element, Roger, or Bobble, the honor of my best friend Yukari demands the blood of SpaceSavage. I'm willing to switch if necessary.

[Octavia]

All the roles are assigned entirely by an RNG, Bayes' Theorem doens't even apply. I trust that Vahn wouldn't manipulate the roles in any way.

[MichaelBurge]

All the roles are assigned entirely by an RNG, Bayes' Theorem doens't even apply. I trust that Vahn wouldn't manipulate the roles in any way.

While I'm normally skeptical of people who seem to have their own private communication channel with Vahn(see YA last game), I don't see how you would get this information merely by being HB when you haven't had the opportunity to use it.

I see that individual roles(Like Puppet Master/Madman/etc.) are determined by RNG, but don't see a specific mention that factions are determined by RNG. It's perfectly possible he subjectively places people onto different teams and then uses RNG to decide their role within that team.

I'm not convinced P(RogerDodger is a scumbag) <= P(Grimm_Shadow is a scumbag); and I'm not convinced Vahn would ruin the game by putting our most inexperienced fans in a power role over the celebrities. Something's wrong with that idea.

On a related but distinct note, Bayes' theorem *always* applies - it's just that if everything is truly random, P(B |A) is constant, so you're multiplying 3 constants together and P(A | B) is constant with respect to each player.

[Octavia]

I wrote the program that assigns the roles, so I know how the roles are distributed. There are two arrays, one with player names in it and one with a list of roles in it (both just strings). The arrays are both shuffled and the nth name is assigned to the nth role for how ever many players there are.

[Vahn]

The roles we're entirely random (well as random as a program can get). There was no bias in who got what role as the program chooses them.

This is the program if you really want to know.
http://pastebin.com/53isRbMY
It's perl btw.

Everyone has just as much ability to message me outside of the game as eachother, everyone has access to the forum PM system and anyone can join S2's IRC and message me on that as well.

[MichaelBurge]

[...] I know how the roles are distributed. [...]

This scares me even more. :blac:

While I'll look over the Perl program, consider the claim used in my argument revoked for now. The logic is still iron-clad, in true Michael Burge fashion, but his hypothesis did not stand quite so strong. :poll:


Everyone has just as much ability to message me outside of the game as eachother, everyone has access to the forum PM system and anyone can join S2's IRC and message me on that as well.

Last game, YA mentioned how Hellbourne had been messaging amongst each other until I brought up the point. That's an extra communication channel with people in it that could be asking for clarifications on rules without these being transmitted elsewhere.

For example, if you look over the chat logs from last game, Hellbourne made a request to you in their topic for dead people to stop posting so much, and the next day was changed. I know they haven't had a chance to talk yet, but it's just another channel things can be discussed in without me knowing.

[Smurf3tte]

I'm always willing to lynch day one, not doing so is folly. If we don't lynch day 1, we don't have very much to talk about on day 2. And if we don't have very much to talk about on day 2 we don't talk very much, and so on.

So yes, I'm willing to lynch someone. Preferably someone useless (SpaceSavage for example), or acting silly (YawningAngel).

[Smurf3tte]

Also MichaelBurge I ran the earliest mafia games and designed many of the roles being used today under my old account Formula409.

But what would you know? You didn't post back then.

[Bobble]

It's a little cruel, but I agree with a SpaceSavage lynch. Unless he can convince us otherwise, it will give us info based on voting patterns, who pushed on his death, who didn't vote for him, and of course, there are always Scout reports, as long as he lives, which I'm sure Keeper or Jera can guarantee (well, in Keeper's case, get a HB to go down with the Scout).

Oh, and for gods sake people, if we are about to lynch you and you're a Legion Power Role, just say it. Please!

[ElementUser]

Tier 1: The most valuable members of the forum
* ElementUser: Recall that Vahn is used to moderating Mechanics; ElementUser would be at the top of a popularity list for him
* Yukari: 2nd only to Element due to his Senior GM position, moderatorship, and general activity
* Michael Burge: His Divine Eminence Michael Burge occupies a foremost position in the minds of anyone even slightly important
* NomesWisdom: Roger receives a higher spot on the list than me only because of my long absence.
* Bobble: One of the oldest members, Bobble's name is surely known

Tier 2: Tier 2 members don't get a description from Michael Burge...
* Vexium
* Nolifer
* Fetyukov
* Evil_Andrex
* Emiya: ... except for Emiya, faithful disciple of the Lord Burge; rejected by his peers for his beliefs, he stands strong in the knowledge that his God was correct.

...


Even though the probabilities say I should lynch Element, Roger, or Bobble, the honor of my best friend Yukari demands the blood of SpaceSavage. I'm willing to switch if necessary.


Yukari & I are above you in your list, GASP!

And Yukari is your best friend? :O

[MichaelBurge]

My logic along with the counter to my claim dictates anyone is a valid choice at this point; they are all equally likely.


I'm always willing to lynch day one, not doing so is folly. If we don't lynch day 1, we don't have very much to talk about on day 2. And if we don't have very much to talk about on day 2 we don't talk very much, and so on.

So yes, I'm willing to lynch someone. Preferably someone useless (SpaceSavage for example), or acting silly (YawningAngel).

It looks like YawningAngel is generally hated, so he's as good a choice as any.

Vote: YawningAngel


Yukari & I are above you in your list, GASP!

And Yukari is your best friend? :O

It's not my popularity list; it's my perception of Vahn's popularity list. Vahn works with you and Yukari more than me, especially considering my ban.

[Nolifer]

Unvote Lucian01 ; Vote SpaceSavage

[Octavia]

Yukari & I are above you in your list, GASP!

And Yukari is your best friend? :O
I think you should remember that you are playing the game and that posting in DeepSkyBlue is incredibly pointless. Everything said by alive people is game related and the only reason dead people weren't told to shut up very vehemently last game was because it would be suspicious.

[GrimmShado]

I beg to disagree MichaelBurge. While it's demonstrated your logic is flawed, as it starts from a false premise (Roles are not blindly random), you categorize everyone biased by completely arbitrary judgement. More active does not mean the one who posts more nothingness, (look at shadowexile last game). As far as i know there is no way to know how many times a day a player visits this post, and that is the only activity i care for.
Now, if i remember correctly you weren't here until about halfway through last game. Feel free to make an opinion of myself, if you consider every game i played in this forums. Playing every game the same way is a huge mistake as makes you predictable and i don't plan on following anyone at least at the moment.

Don't get me wrong, i am all for day one lynch, giving hb a free kill is not going to help us at all. I'll be willing to lynch spacesavage or bobble.

That is it for game related stuff. I would ask you to refrain from calling me "uneducated" as is just not true (Second best Highscool Graduation test, that is like having an imppressivily high SAT score in my country, Accepted at first attempt at a very hard to get in college, almost ending a chemical engeneering degree and active participation on applied physical-chemistry products developement, just to name a few...) or incompetent. As far as i know there is no Mafia school, and my behavior, good or wrong led legion to victory my first game and had me suspecting the right people last game.

[SpaceSavage]

Oh thanks

[ElementUser]

I think you should remember that you are playing the game and that posting in DeepSkyBlue is incredibly pointless. Everything said by alive people is game related and the only reason dead people weren't told to shut up very vehemently last game was because it would be suspicious.

DeepSkyBlue is for talking about stuff not really related to the game/non-serious remarks even if I'm still playing.

I can still do that! :O

[Octavia]

DeepSkyBlue is for talking about stuff not really related to the game/non-serious remarks even if I'm still playing.

I can still do that! :O
On the contrary, the point of the DeepSkyBlue is to allow active players to be able to skip stupid banter from spectators (which if I had it my way would be instantly deleted or put in a different thread) and only read content relevant to the game. Every single thing that an alive person says is relevant to the game, even if they aren't talking about the game. Judgements can be made about character, active lurking or attempts to dodge matters at hand for example (the list is not exhaustive).

[Nolifer]

DeepSkyBlue is for talking about stuff not really related to the game/non-serious remarks even if I'm still playing.

I can still do that! :O
I respect you as a wizard and all, but there really shouldn't be any need for DeepSkyBlue at all.

[Vahn]

If you read the first you'll notice any non-player posts will be removed as soon as I see it, as for posting the deepskyblue that's really the same as any other colour. Dead people and non-players will be strictly not posting to avoid them giving any insight or distracting from the team.

[Nolifer]

DeepSkyBlue was only meant to be used by non-participating users when they posted bullshit in the thread, this was to make it easier for players to ignore them.
This time only participants + vahn are allowed to post in the thread, so there's no need for DeepSkyBlue.

[MichaelBurge]

I beg to disagree MichaelBurge. While it's demonstrated your logic is flawed, as it starts from a false premise (Roles are not blindly random),

My logic is valid, but my argument is not sound. There's a reason I cleanly separated out my possibly dubious claim from the rest of my logic.

The distinction is important because I'm still using the logic in my lynching of YA.


you categorize everyone biased by completely arbitrary judgement. More active does not mean the one who posts more nothingness, (look at shadowexile last game). As far as i know there is no way to know how many times a day a player visits this post, and that is the only activity i care for.




you categorize everyone biased by completely arbitrary judgement. More active does not mean the one who posts more nothingness, (look at shadowexile last game). As far as i know there is no way to know how many times a day a player visits this post, and that is the only activity i care for.
Now, if i remember correctly you weren't here until about halfway through last game. Feel free to make an opinion of myself, if you consider every game i played in this forums. Playing every game the same way is a huge mistake as makes you predictable and i don't plan on following anyone at least at the moment.

Don't get me wrong, i am all for day one lynch, giving hb a free kill is not going to help us at all. I'll be willing to lynch spacesavage or bobble.

It doesn't matter what the exact definition of popularity used was; it held for any monotone-increasing discrete probability distribution. It's the reason I had 3 levels of "tiers"; I can't nail down individuals precisely because the definition isn't precise, but I knew it would be increasing between the tiers.

That is it for game related stuff. I would ask you to refrain from calling me "uneducated" as is just not true (Second best Highscool Graduation test, that is like having an imppressivily high SAT score in my country, Accepted at first attempt at a very hard to get in college, almost ending a chemical engeneering degree and active participation on applied physical-chemistry products developement, just to name a few...) or incompetent. As far as i know there is no Mafia school, and my behavior, good or wrong led legion to victory my first game and had me suspecting the right people last game. [/QUOTE]

My comments on you are not in absolute terms, but relative. His Eminence is so vastly superior to you - even in the subjects which you've been studying your entire life - that you are uneducated in comparison.


you read the first you'll notice any non-player posts will be removed as soon as I see it, as for posting the deepskyblue that's really the same as any other colour. Dead people and non-players will be strictly not posting to avoid them giving any insight or distracting from the team.

If the factions and roles are completely random, is there a reason you told people applying to be Werewolves that they should be especially active?

Edit: I was under the impression you could request to be Hellbourne and everyone else was assigned Legion. The rule certainly gives off that vibe, but sorry for the confusion.

[Octavia]

Edit: I was under the impression you could request to be Hellbourne and everyone else was assigned Legion. The rule certainly gives off that vibe, but sorry for the confusion.The rules were originally written by me, and the point of it is because nobody wants a stagnant game. Some people don't visit the forums daily and that would severely impact things like role claims further halting the game progress even more.

I don't know how that sentence gives the idea that activity allowed you to request being Hellbourne.

[Vahn]

If the factions and roles are completely random, is there a reason you told people applying to be Werewolves that they should be especially active?
Simply because inactive people make the game boring and make me have to find replacements, I doubt many would go against me saying that this game is more enjoyable when everyone is active.

Edit: I was under the impression you could request to be Hellbourne and everyone else was assigned Legion. The rule certainly gives off that vibe, but sorry for the confusion.
Nope, If someone requested something like that I would have simply said that the program assigns the roles so they'd have to hope they get the team they want.

[YawningAngel]

Sorry, are you all proposing to lynch me simply because I've acted oddly? That sounds distinctly scummy to me.

[Octavia]

Sorry, are you all proposing to lynch me simply because I've acted oddly? That sounds distinctly scummy to me.
What reason would a Townie have to act oddly? Drawing unnecessary suspicion to yourself is not the best plan of action on Day 1. Obviously you could be going for some kind of gambit, but ultimately self-concealed gambits don't benefit us as a collective group much at all.

[Smurf3tte]

Or even yourself, since all they do by-in-large is get you lynched.

[MichaelBurge]

Sorry, are you all proposing to lynch me simply because I've acted oddly? That sounds distinctly scummy to me.

Not all all, YA - I'm voting to lynch you because everybody else is, and my current reasoning says I don't really care who we lynch.


Simply because inactive people make the game boring and make me have to find replacements, I doubt many would go against me saying that this game is more enjoyable when everyone is active.

I was misreading "to sign up for Werewolf, you must be an active player" as "to sign up as a Hellbourne player, you must be an active player." That's where the confusion was, not that players in general should be active.

[Fetyukov]

Sorry I wasn't here yesterday, was helping my gf study for her antropology final.


Personally I'm worried about all the big names here. Like Burge put it, there are quite a few big name players, with a lot of pull on players, especially saplings with now where to really look.

On the other hand, I don't really want to lynch these big names, they keep the game interesting and provide lots of information.

So here is Fetyukov's list of prime targets:
1. Inactives
2. blind followers

vote spacesavage

Why? 3 key reasons.

1. ElementUser stated that he's going to be useless until SS is gone. I don't want a useless player, so let's just give him a bone.
2. He's not from the last mafia game, so I have less of a read on him. I realise that's a tad unfair, but ultimately it's a big point in my mind.
3. 3 posts, 0 content. If he was a Legion PR he would protest more.

Yeah, kinda stupid reasons for a lynch, I know. **** it, it's day 1, lets get a lynch, see what the night actions bring us.

[Smurf3tte]

Basing reads on meta is pointless, it may work if the person in question is "consistent" but event then they could be using that to abuse you.


It's best to treat everyone as if it's a new mafia game and you've never played with them before. Beyond that, your reasoning for voting seems shady.

[Lucian01]

That is it for game related stuff. I would ask you to refrain from calling me "uneducated" as is just not true (Second best Highscool Graduation test, that is like having an imppressivily high SAT score in my country, Accepted at first attempt at a very hard to get in college, almost ending a chemical engeneering degree and active participation on applied physical-chemistry products developement, just to name a few...) or incompetent. As far as i know there is no Mafia school, and my behavior, good or wrong led legion to victory my first game and had me suspecting the right people last game.

Pretending to be clever in real life changes nothing here (like seriously, "engeneering"? lol). MichaelBurge has only your last game to go on. In said game you eagerly lynched several legion without remorse, later on you suspected right people only because you were told to do so.

--------------------

Vote Spacesavage

Sadly I must say I doubt he's hb, although I'll vote for him anyway in the sake of progression. If I see some serious posts from him I will reconsider.

[MichaelBurge]

Michael Burge changes his vote yet again; he will continue to hop between whoever gets the votes.

Vote: SpaceSavage

[Octavia]

Michael Burge changes his vote yet again; he will continue to hop between whoever gets the votes.

Vote: SpaceSavage
Narrating your sheeple vote in 3rd person obviously makes it less of a sheeple vote.

:devo:

[MichaelBurge]

Narrating your sheeple vote in 3rd person obviously makes it less of a sheeple vote.

:devo:

Like I said, my current reasoning says lynching anyone is equally viable. I vote whoever has the most votes in the interest of time.

Is it a 'sheeple' vote if I haven't actually changed my position?

[Octavia]

Don't think too harshly against my comment, that's just the immediate reaction that came to mind when reading your post.

[ElementUser]

We all love MichaelBurge vs. NomesWisdom posts anyway.

[Lucian01]

Thus far savage hasn't posted more than a one liner. Not the kind of behavior I'd expect from a staff member, it'd probably be best we do him in now sooner than later, since he clearly doesn't want to contribute.

[Octavia]

We all love MichaelBurge vs. NomesWisdom posts anyway.
I don't think there's any need to create a rivalry when the probability of MichaelBurge being aligned with me is acceptable for now.

[ElementUser]

Thus far savage hasn't posted more than a one liner. Not the kind of behavior I'd expect from a staff member, it'd probably be best we do him in now sooner than later, since he clearly doesn't want to contribute.

Uhh he's a GM not an S2 staff member.

I guess GM is technically "a" staff member but not of S2...just of the GM team.

[MichaelBurge]

Don't think too harshly against my comment, that's just the immediate reaction that came to mind when reading your post.

Count the number of Burge disciples in this game; we've got ElementUser, Yukari, Emiya, and probably several others after my list was revealed correct last game.

Don't think too harshly against Michael Burge, or you'll be pushing up daisies by the time night comes around. :scou:

:bloo: :bloo: :bloo: :bloo: :bloo: :bloo: :bloo: :bloo: :bloo: :bloo: :bloo: :bloo:

But on a serious note, if I had more voting power I could draw out more information with gambits and such. One vote isn't much to work with, but if I could suddenly drop 5 votes on someone and possibly repeal them I could get information out of people.

Vahn: Is it possible for people to say "I authorize Michael Burge to vote on my behalf"? They would, of course, be able to form voting blocs with people besides me, but it would be an interesting tactical addition I think.

[GrimmShado]

Well lucian, your behavior called for it. I act based on information i have and that blue text was because i felt offended *outside* of game context. It changes nothing, true, i don't mean that to change anything except the way his divine eminence conducts himself towards me.

I do not regret lynching you last game as your knowitall attitude would have been a riddance rather than helpful later on game.
If his divine eminence wants he can read the forst game thread to get a good read on me, but that's besides the point.

YA acted oddly last game at the beginning too, and he turned out to be hb. But there is a difference. Last game he was all "let's get them hb, boys!!!!" now he's not posting any strategic content, but rather pointlessly throwing info and catching reactions. Tough i don't approve, i realize it has it's advantages.

Whatever the case might be i don't think even if YA is on a gambit, would get lynched today.

I would rather vote Emiya, Evil_Andrex or Lucian, but SpaceSavage is not too bad in terms of who to lynch and any "guess" we get today is inconclusive at least.

I'll hold my vote for now, but theres that.

[Fetyukov]

Count the number of Burge disciples in this game; we've got ElementUser, Yukari, Emiya, and probably several others after my list was revealed correct last game.

This is exactly what I'm afraid of, a bunch of burge disciples trusting him for no real reason.

Burge is awesome, don't get me wrong, but blindly following a very intelligent person can have disastrous consequences in a game about deception.

[YawningAngel]

As I see it, the more discourse we allow, the more each person's agenda will begin to show itself. Thus, stirring up trouble is likely to the Legion's benefit.

[ElementUser]

This is exactly what I'm afraid of, a bunch of burge disciples trusting him for no real reason.

Burge is awesome, don't get me wrong, but blindly following a very intelligent person can have disastrous consequences in a game about deception.

Are you calling us Corrupted Disciples?

:corr:

That's...an insult :(

[Fetyukov]

Are you calling us Corrupted Disciples?

:corr:

That's...an insult :(

Not quite, but let's picture a few scenarios, where people blindly follow Burge.

Burge is Legion
Legion players blindly follow him, hb blindly follows him to appear Legion until jere and/or keep are dead. Then Burge is gone and Legion players scramble around for nothing. Sure, he may be right a few times, but it is unlikely that such a charismatic leader of the legion would live for long enough to win the game single-handedly.

Burge is Hellbourne
Worse still, people blindly follow him and he's actually the enemy. Nice.

But the worst thing about the situation is, we don't know WHAT Burge is, and we don't know what roles his followers are. If 4 people vote with him constantly, 2 could be legit and 2 could be hellbourne, and because they are simply votes for Burge to play around with, we would never know the difference.

Blind voting is just stupid, it doesn't give any information, voting has to have a purpose and intent, even a weak original intent is better than a strong following in my books.

[Vahn]

Vahn: Is it possible for people to say "I authorize Michael Burge to vote on my behalf"? They would, of course, be able to form voting blocs with people besides me, but it would be an interesting tactical addition I think.

I don't like this idea at all, it encourages people to blindly follow a person. If they really want to do that they can just copy your vote.

[Fetyukov]

I don't like this idea at all, it encourages people to blindly follow a person. If they really want to do that they can just copy your vote.

update your first post, I voted for spacesavage too (on page 5)

[Lucian01]

Well lucian, your behavior called for it. I act based on information i have and that blue text was because i felt offended *outside* of game context. It changes nothing, true, i don't mean that to change anything except the way his divine eminence conducts himself towards me.

I do not regret lynching you last game as your knowitall attitude would have been a riddance rather than helpful later on game.
Such irony; you call me out for being a know it all when you just bragged on about your SAT scores (in an internet forum game no less). And disregarding my post by pretending I was the only sapling you happily lynched? heh. You went on a streak of legion lynching and contributed nothing besides being a sheep, if that can even be counted as a contribution.

[Nolifer]

Players who haven't voted yet: Bobble, Emiya, Evil_Andrex, GrimmShado, NomesWisdom, YawningAngel
http://forums.heroesofnewerth.com/._.jpg

[MichaelBurge]

Not quite, but let's picture a few scenarios, where people blindly follow Burge.

Burge is Legion
Legion players blindly follow him, hb blindly follows him to appear Legion until jere and/or keep are dead. Then Burge is gone and Legion players scramble around for nothing. Sure, he may be right a few times, but it is unlikely that such a charismatic leader of the legion would live for long enough to win the game single-handedly.

Burge is Hellbourne
Worse still, people blindly follow him and he's actually the enemy. Nice.

But the worst thing about the situation is, we don't know WHAT Burge is, and we don't know what roles his followers are. If 4 people vote with him constantly, 2 could be legit and 2 could be hellbourne, and because they are simply votes for Burge to play around with, we would never know the difference.

Blind voting is just stupid, it doesn't give any information, voting has to have a purpose and intent, even a weak original intent is better than a strong following in my books.

Fretyukov brings up an interesting point - by leading my disciples, I make myself a target and then when lynched you scramble around like sheep. However:

1.) We have a Jeraziah or Keeper: If I'm the most obvious leader to the point that Hellbourne are scared to lynch me because of these, then I'm correct as usual and there is no harm in following me. If Hellbourne try to lynch me and Jeraziah shields me, then we're a move ahead - in chess terminology, we have gained a 'tempo'. If Hellbourne try to lynch me and Keeper has an eye, then we can immediately counter-lynch the Hellbourne; keep in mind that there are very few Hellbourne this game and a number of decent leaders for Legion - losing me will both judge my information which I have surely provided you guys correct, and net us a free kill.

The key point here is that I need to set myself up to be viewed as a Legion leader to the point that our Jeraziah or Keeper is willing to shield me. If nobody's following me, then my votes aren't nearly as useful and Hellbourne aren't nearly as tempted to risk off'ing me.

2.) I'm more valuable a leader than anyone else - You can argue that nobody should be a leader, but then it's easier for Hellbourne to sit back and let you all kill yourselves. We need a strong leader, and I'm the strongest.

You might argue that I could be Hellbourne; I counter-argue that even if I were Hellbourne, the fact that I am so detailed in my arguments(and actually follows my arguments with votes) shows that I'm worth keeping around if only to see what the Hellbourne are thinking.

That is to say, Michael Burge's role is irrelevant to his arguments; and his arguments are explicit enough to be worth following. Keep in mind also how doubting me lost Legion the game last time.

3.) My leadership is sufficient to win.


but it is unlikely that such a charismatic leader of the legion would live for long enough to win the game single-handedly.

Au contraire. In just a single round, I gave a list of every Hellbourne player which was fully correct. Legion rejected my list out of fear, and lost the game as a result.

Your indecisive voting lost you the game, and now you claim my leadership isn't good enough?

[Fetyukov]

Au contraire. In just a single round, I gave a list of every Hellbourne player which was fully correct. Legion rejected my list out of fear, and lost the game as a result.

In a single round after 4 days of information. If you can predict all the HB right now be my guest.

I agree, we should keep you for many reasons, hb or legion, but here's the problem as I see it.

There is only 1 combo where we have BOTH keeper and jere, and protection is needed for Yukari as he hard-claimed Scout. What does the great and powerful MichaelBurge suggest to do about that?


Your indecisive voting lost you the game, and now you claim my leadership isn't good enough?

I was killed off the day after you, and I couldn't post anything strategic.

We need more than your leadership here.

[MichaelBurge]

There is only 1 combo where we have BOTH keeper and jere, and protection is needed for Yukari as he hard-claimed Scout. What does the great and powerful MichaelBurge suggest to do about that?

Note to Jeraziah/Keeper: Go to "random.org" and generate a random 0 or 1 with 50% probability of each. If it's 0, protect Yukari. If it's 1, protect me.

50% probability of having your turn wasted is far too much for the Hellbourne to risk. Especially if we have a Keeper(I don't believe Hellbourne get Legion's roles, or even what combo we're using).

[Nolifer]

The interesting thing in this round of honwolf is that an imp may be voted off by his fellow hellbourne in the 1st day.

[YawningAngel]

Fretyukov brings up an interesting point - by leading my disciples, I make myself a target and then when lynched you scramble around like sheep. However:

1.) We have a Jeraziah or Keeper: If I'm the most obvious leader to the point that Hellbourne are scared to lynch me because of these, then I'm correct as usual and there is no harm in following me. If Hellbourne try to lynch me and Jeraziah shields me, then we're a move ahead - in chess terminology, we have gained a 'tempo'. If Hellbourne try to lynch me and Keeper has an eye, then we can immediately counter-lynch the Hellbourne; keep in mind that there are very few Hellbourne this game and a number of decent leaders for Legion - losing me will both judge my information which I have surely provided you guys correct, and net us a free kill.

The key point here is that I need to set myself up to be viewed as a Legion leader to the point that our Jeraziah or Keeper is willing to shield me. If nobody's following me, then my votes aren't nearly as useful and Hellbourne aren't nearly as tempted to risk off'ing me.

2.) I'm more valuable a leader than anyone else - You can argue that nobody should be a leader, but then it's easier for Hellbourne to sit back and let you all kill yourselves. We need a strong leader, and I'm the strongest.

You might argue that I could be Hellbourne; I counter-argue that even if I were Hellbourne, the fact that I am so detailed in my arguments(and actually follows my arguments with votes) shows that I'm worth keeping around if only to see what the Hellbourne are thinking.

That is to say, Michael Burge's role is irrelevant to his arguments; and his arguments are explicit enough to be worth following. Keep in mind also how doubting me lost Legion the game last time.

3.) My leadership is sufficient to win.



Au contraire. In just a single round, I gave a list of every Hellbourne player which was fully correct. Legion rejected my list out of fear, and lost the game as a result.

Your indecisive voting lost you the game, and now you claim my leadership isn't good enough?
You can't reasonably expect Jeraziah's attentions when Yukari has hard-claimed Scout.

[Fetyukov]

Note to Jeraziah/Keeper: Go to "random.org" and generate a random 0 or 1 with 50% probability of each. If it's 0, protect Yukari. If it's 1, protect me.

50% probability of having your turn wasted is far too much for the Hellbourne to risk. Especially if we have a Keeper(I don't believe Hellbourne get Legion's roles, or even what combo we're using).

Burge, this is why I love you. With this in the air, it's now a poor choice to attempt to lynch either of you.

I hope keep and jere are listening to this.

[Vexium]

Curious stuff so far. Needless to say, I don't see why we're BWing SpaceSavage when he has yet to post a single word relevant to this game.

I suggest you hold off on hammering him until he does post some sort of defense. On that note, Yukari and Evil_Andrex are rather absent as well. That said, please realize that there is no way to determine whether one is simply lurking or actively lurking... so don't be saying someone is "obviously actively lurking" when there's no reasonable way to determine this.

Oh, and I'd like to clear up a few other things. The leader here should be Scout until anyone else counters Yukari's hard-claim to the role. One of our main priorities is to help keep this power role alive and active as long as possible. We should be gathering as much as we can through Scout and KotF's cooperation with Scout. Of course, this only applies for as long as we are unsure of the presence of Succubus in the game.

One other thing: YawningAngel should either be pressured now or next. Why? Re-read each of his posts thus far.

I second what Fetyukov has said above me, but allow me to point this out right now: MichaelBurge is not speaking in the same tone as last game. Be wary of this fact and see how he conducts himself further.

Lastly, let's take note of the people - as well as their reasons for voting as such - who conducted this early BW on SpaceSavage so far.

They are as follows:

1st: ElementUser (personal vendetta that he claims will jeopardize his votes in the future if not taken care of)

2nd: MichaelBurge (discussed later, as he switches votes and later becomes 7th to vote on SS)

3rd: Yukari (hard-claimed scout)

4th: Nolifer (says nothing with vote-change from Lucian to SS)

5th: Fetyukov
(starts off his post by following in-line with Burge's irrelevant though verbose argument on how many highly active forum users, "big names", are in this game... also lists 3 pointless reasons as to his voting and then points out that the reasoning is stupid)

6th: Lucian01 (post has nothing worthy to comment on)

7th: MichaelBurge
(originally immediately posted as game began, voting SS following ElementUser's personal vendetta vote, then switched votes to YA b/c we seemed to be heading that way, now has switched back for sake of BWing, as well as some fascination with Yukari... highly worthy of pressuring by Day 2 or 3)

[Smurf3tte]

Ugh. Burge stop making pointless WIFOM posts about yourself please.

[Nolifer]

Considering the hellbourne don't know who's legion/hellbourne, what do you think of doing a no-lynch the first day?

If the hellbourne knew, we'd get more information out of day one by lynching.
If the hb are as clueless as any of us, perhaps it'd be best to wait out day 1 and lynch on the next day?

[Smurf3tte]

The Hellbourne do know.

To I detect feigned innocence from an Hellbourne member?

[Yukari]

Let's take a look at the event that has happened so far, shall we?
Disclaimer: Naturally what I'm about to say are my personal thoughts and opinions, and it is not 100% of everything that I know. If you see an error in my logic, feel free to point it out.


Bobble - N/A

Broodje - Noob that really doesn't do too much. Has little worth to the team, should he be legion.

ElementUser - <3

Emiya - N/A

Evil_Andrex - Noob and bandwagoner. No immediate danger, the only danger is that if Andrex is legion and one of the big names are HB, he may bandwagon with the HB during a day lynch. However this does not deviate from a normal newish HB, voting with bloodbuddies. It shouldn't be a problem if it's a poorly argued lynch, though.

Fetyukov - His actions and style are not too different from game 2 (Sapling,) however I am getting strange vibes from post #97. Not to say that it's bad, just an uneasy feeling. If he is a legion, it's a perfectly natural thing to do. If he's HB, it's also a logical decision. To bandwagon while providing abundant evidence. I could probe deeper, but let's leave it at that.

GrimmShado - NMI

Lucian01 - NMI

MichaelBurge - A lot can be said here. Sure, he nailed the HB roster last game, but that was after an abundant of information. Yes, he is useful to Legion later on, but that does not mean that he could not be a HB. I'm not sure if he's trying to distract Jerry/KoTF to snipe me, or legitimately fear a first NK. (However the first sounds rather unlikely, as YA pointed out, and the latter isn't out of the question. He doesn't seem to deviate a lot from his posting style, but I cannot get an accurate read at this time. So I'll just warn the usual bandwagoners to be weary.

Nolifer - NMI, I didn't even get a good reading last game either.

NomesWisdom - Skipping some of the evidence that I'm not willing to disclose, I'm willing to believe that he's legion, you should however, at least try to defend yourself.

Smurf3tte - NMI

SpaceSavage - Useless as legion, useless as HB. I have no problems with voting him out first day.

Vexium - NMI

YawningAngel - As chaotic and clueless as ever, fine for now if we keep him on a tight leash. No need to cast him to the gallows yet.

Yukari - Hard claimed scout


Oh, and I believe that we are on Combination 3. This is my guess, and no, I'm not willing to explain why. Allow me to give some orders here. I am requesting KoTF to keep an eye on Burge/Lucian/Nomes (your call) while Jereziah protects me. Please do not ask why, I refuse to explain it at this point.

[Nolifer]

The Hellbourne do know.

To I detect feigned innocence from an Hellbourne member?
The Hellbourne do not know.

Do I detect feigned innocence from a Hellbourne member?

[Nolifer]

Yukari, what's NMI? No Meaningful Information?

[Yukari]

The Hellbourne do not know.

Do I detect feigned innocence from a Hellbourne member?

While you are right, I don't think he is trying to mislead anyone. Like 3 people made this mistake in game 1 and 2 combined.

[Yukari]

Yukari, what's NMI? No Meaningful Information?

Need More Information. N/A is that I have absolutely no clue at this point.

[Smurf3tte]

The Hellbourne do not know.

Do I detect feigned innocence from a Hellbourne member?

Day 1 has begun

To ensure everyone is on the same level, the hellbourne do know who eachother is and what their roles are.

If anyone didn't receive the PM with their role please message me and I will re-send it to you.

Literally the second post in this thread.

[Yukari]

Hm, I assumed that he didn't change the rules. My bad. Not sure if I like this change though. Can I at least still assume they will know each other after the first night?

[Nolifer]

While you are right, I don't think he is trying to mislead anyone. Like 3 people made this mistake in game 1 and 2 combined.
Indeed, I didn't really mean to accuse her (did I just fail?) for being hb, just tried to make a witty rebuttal.

[ElementUser]

1st: ElementUser (personal vendetta that he claims will jeopardize his votes in the future if not taken care of)

Lol, I never said that (I guess you can think of it that way if you wanted to, but regardless), it's just something to get out of the way so I can be satisfied.

That's all.

=D

[Nolifer]

It seems I have utterly failed, I read that as a "do not know".

[ElementUser]

ElementUser - <3


I love you too!

<3

[Yukari]

Hm, I assumed that he didn't change the rules. My bad. Not sure if I like this change though. Can I at least still assume they will know each other after the first night?

Holy **** I read those two posts wrong. Ignore what I quoted. I was right in the first place.

[ElementUser]

Holy **** I read those two posts wrong. Ignore what I quoted. I was right in the first place.

That's why you always look so tired on Skype

:(

[Nolifer]

But still, if the hb do know who eachother is, how does that ensure everyone is on the same lvl? That's probably what made me read it wrong.

[Nolifer]

That would mean the hellbourne are on another lvl than the legion, wouldn't it?

[Yukari]

There are less HB than there are legion. This makes it even, especially since they get night-chat anyway.

[YawningAngel]

HB know who each other are.

[SpaceSavage]

I cant help but feel ElementUser, burge and Yukari are acting very hellbourne-ish in taking me out... (seriously taking me out because I reported a silly post and "voting with me majority!?)

[ElementUser]

Apologize for your post report please in my very first post.

:)

And maybe I'll take my lynch vote off........just maybe...............

:O

[Yukari]

I cant help but feel ElementUser, burge and Yukari are acting very hellbourne-ish in taking me out... (seriously taking me out because I reported a silly post and "voting with me majority!?)

HUEHAUHUEAHUAUUEUHAE

Yeah I have no problem voting you out day 1.

:bloo::bloo::bloo::bloo::bloo::bloo::bloo::bloo::b loo::bloo::bloo::bloo:
Come at me bro

[ElementUser]

Wait a minute, how does SpaceSavage even know of me + Yukari's relations?

That in itself is a topic for another thread.

Very suspicious. Or maybe Aya just told you....sigh Aya

~.~

[Yukari]

Ele, no discussion outside :3
Though I will ask aya if what you said is true.

[SpaceSavage]

But EU I am all knowing..

Also for the sake of surviving I am sorry for the report as I was forced into it by yawning to continue on from his report.

[YawningAngel]

This is defamation.

[Yukari]

Prove to me that you are at least somewhat useful to Legion, and I will retract my vote.

[ElementUser]

But EU I am all knowing..

Also for the sake of surviving I am sorry for the report as I was forced into it by yawning to continue on from his report.

YawningAngel............why would you do such a thing.......?

:SymbolOfRage:

[SpaceSavage]

Well for starters not killing me will mean that you have the chance to catch a hellbourne player which will mean the village will see less raping and pillaging during the night.

[YawningAngel]

But I LIKE rape. Especially with tentacles...

[ElementUser]

But I LIKE rape. Especially with tentacles...

Tremblerape

:trem:

[SpaceSavage]

Only a hellbourne player would like tentacle rape...

[SpaceSavage]

Unvote: Smurf3tte
Vote: YawningAngel

Burn the heretic!

[Emiya]

I cant help but feel ElementUser, burge and Yukari are acting very hellbourne-ish in taking me out... (seriously taking me out because I reported a silly post and "voting with me majority!?)
Fact is, it's more beneficial to blind lynch someone on day 1, and unfortunately for a select few people (in this case, you) someone will get lynched unless they claim a power-role.

We're getting a lot of responses in this thread so I'm going to withhold my vote for now.

[Smurf3tte]

Well for starters not killing me will mean that you have the chance to catch a hellbourne player which will mean the village will see less raping and pillaging during the night.
Unvote: YawningAngel
Vote: SpaceSavage

Uh-huh, tell me more.

[SpaceSavage]

Well what more do you wish to know

[Emiya]

Maybe you shouldn't vote lynch someone not trying to vote lynch you

protip

[Yukari]

Only a hellbourne player would like tentacle rape...

So I'm hellborune because I AM TentacleRape?

You are SO going to the gallows.

[SpaceSavage]

Pfft kill your jera then... GJ shooting yourselves in the foot

[Nolifer]

Uh-oh, a claim.

[Nolifer]

Unvote SpaceSavage

[Yukari]

So now you are hard-claiming jerry. TROLOLOLO

[SpaceSavage]

Well would jera like tentacle rape? i'm just a hardcore role player like that

[Yukari]

Sorry bro, that claim was so retarded I can't help but wanting to lynch you.

[Fetyukov]

unvote spacesavage

ffs. Any counter claims? (also, keep in mind it could be set-up 4, with no jere)

[Nolifer]

It made me want to lynch him even more as well, but if he really is an annoying jera, we're better off lynching someone else.

[SpaceSavage]

Yukari you have no counter claims? I cant help but feel you are pushing WAYYY too hard to get a "blind lynch" through on on person

[ElementUser]

SpaceSavage, isn't it a bit weird how your post activity in this thread spiked up ever since you finally decided to confront my vote that was posted in the first post of the thread?

Why didn't you try to defend yourself right away?

[SpaceSavage]

I was playing HoN and posting in tech support. Decided to check on lynch progress and realised my team might actually lose someone way too valuable for a day 1 lynch

[Smurf3tte]

I was playing HoN and posting in tech support. Decided to check on lynch progress and realised my team might actually lose someone way too valuable for a day 1 lynch
I'm enthralled.

[SpaceSavage]

I only aim to please

[Yukari]

I was playing HoN and posting in tech support. Decided to check on lynch progress and realised my team might actually lose someone way too valuable for a day 1 lynch

Something is missing from that list.

You're fired.

[SpaceSavage]

I was obviously banninating my liege.

[Fetyukov]

It made me want to lynch him even more as well, but if he really is an annoying jera, we're better off lynching someone else.

Actually, now that I think about it there's something fishy here...

if he is Jere...
What's the point of claiming? hb either has a succ or a dev which makes this claim useless. Either he is jere and will be mezzed/devo'd (meaning his protection goes entirely to waste) or he is not and we should lynch him anyways.

re-lynch spacesavage

Unless my logic is entirely flawed and I'm reatarded...

[YawningAngel]

I think this Jeraziah claim is nothing but a ploy. Consider: if Savage is Legion, he will induce Hellbourne to waste a kill and save himself from a day1 lynch, and if he's Hellbourne then he gives himself at least a fighting chance of dodging a lynch. In other words, why WOULDN'T he claim it?

[SpaceSavage]

Unless my logic is entirely flawed and I'm reatarded...

Your logic is flawed I can protect myself from them

[Yukari]

Yukari you have no counter claims? I cant help but feel you are pushing WAYYY too hard to get a "blind lynch" through on on person

Is it not obvious that your claim doesn't even affect my agenda regardless if your claim is true or not? Seriously bro.

[Fetyukov]

Your logic is flawed I can protect myself from them

As far as I know, if they either mez/devo you AND vote to kill you you still die. But you still won't be protecting anybody but yourself, making you about as effective as a sappling.

[YawningAngel]

We should factor in the notion that, given Savage's previously established incentives to make this claim, there's maybe only a 10% chance it's true.

[Fetyukov]

Actually, (sorry for dub post) quote from vahn


Jeraziah can not protect himself.

[SpaceSavage]

Is it not obvious that your claim doesn't even affect my agenda regardless if your claim is true or not? Seriously bro.

It does effect your agenda as the HB will probably go for me saving a legion life and wasting a turn giving us more time to find out the HB.

[Yukari]

Oh, and I should mention that my previous statement does not mean that I am not scout. As a token of good faith, if I am still alive by the end of this night, I will deliver my first scout report first thing day 2.

[Yukari]

It does effect your agenda as the HB will probably go for me saving a legion life and wasting a turn giving us more time to find out the HB.

Suc/devo -> Ability on Space Savage, NK Yukari. Yeah sorry, doesn't affect me whatsoever.

[Emiya]

Uhh, it'd be bad if he is not the real Jera and the real Jera does claim. tl;dr don't say anthing Jera!

[YawningAngel]

How are we supposed to VERIFY this scout report? You could be a bluffing legion player, you could be a genuine scout, you could even be a madman trying to convince us that he is Scout.

[Yukari]

How are we supposed to VERIFY this scout report? You could be a bluffing legion player, you could be a genuine scout, you could even be a madman trying to convince us that he is Scout.

Yawning, you know as well as I do that even though this is true, this won't be enough to incite a lynch on me.

[Yukari]

I'm basically saying that I'm forcing you to trust me at this point.

[Fetyukov]

Once again, Jere CANNOT protect himself.

If SS is Jere, he's a nk.

If he's not Jere we should be lynching him

He's dead either way. Jere claim was the nail in the coffin.

[ElementUser]

Your logic is flawed I can protect myself from them

Yeah you can't protect yourself as Jeraziah.

Only way for Jeraziah to be "protected" is through Legionnaire but he's not in any of the combos.

Too bad.

:blac:

[YawningAngel]

Of course, if he's NOT Jera and we don't kill him...

[Yukari]

Of course, if he's NOT Jera and we don't kill him...

Of course, what's to say that he's not a desperate HB?

[SpaceSavage]

Yeah you can't protect yourself as Jeraziah.

Only way for Jeraziah to be "protected" is through Legionnaire but he's not in any of the combos.

Too bad.

:blac:

balls.

Well don't lynch me and I have committed suicide for you.

[Yukari]

balls.

Well don't lynch me and I have committed suicide for you.

Speaking on the behalf of myself, of course:

Thanks but no thanks.

[YawningAngel]

Of course, what's to say that he's not a desperate HB?
Nothing, but he's statistically more likely to be a desperate Legion.

[SpaceSavage]

Unless of course you are HB and wishing to take 2 down...

[Fetyukov]

Nothing, but he's statistically more likely to be a desperate Legion.

What does a Sappling get out of claiming Jere???

If they don't get lynched the HB would nk them, useless.

[Yukari]

Nothing, but he's statistically more likely to be a desperate Legion.

Statistically, he's more likely to be a HB. The last 3 times a sapling was desperately pressured, they self-destructed rather than claimed.

[Smurf3tte]

Nothing, but he's statistically more likely to be a desperate Legion.
Statistically maybe, but you'd have to be very stupid to be Legion, not Jera and claim Jera to survive a lynch.

[Smurf3tte]

Statistically, he's more likely to be a HB. The last 3 times a sapling was desperately pressured, they self-destructed rather than claimed.
Basically this. A Sapling wouldn't try to claim a PR to survive a lynch. Nor would they nessacarily defend themselves hard, unless it mylo/lylo.

[Evil_Andrex]

On V1 Otolia was desperately trying to defend himself, maybe similar to SS right now, although Otolia didn't claim but maybe we should be careful at the least.

But I agree with Fetyukov, he is more than likely dead one way or another. The question might be will we kill him or the HB kill him.

BTW I'm here. I'm just trying to wade through all these pages filled with stuff, its a lot of stuff so I want to at least try to make my own decision.

[Evil_Andrex]

Oh and also I would be a disciple of Burge if his minecraft server wasn't so barren with no one to get money from. :(

[Yukari]

Oh and also I would be a disciple of Burge if his minecraft server wasn't so barren with no one to get money from. :(

Was just on that server checking update. Damn temp world, I had stuff I wanted to build.

[Vexium]

Uhh, it'd be bad if he is not the real Jera and the real Jera does claim. tl;dr don't say anthing Jera!

First of all, no sapling would be dumb enough to claim Jera and not be Jera. SS, if you are NOT Jera and are Legion, you should fess up to this fact ASAP. You'd probably die, but we would be all the wiser for it if you are Legion and prevent our real PRs from outing early.

Second of all, we do not lynch an unCC'd (has not been Counter Claimed) Jera. This would be very dumb.

Third and most importantly, when someone claims a PR that you are, you CC it.

With that said, we await a Counter Claim to SS's Jera claim to proceed with the lynch. (You may be thinking, *GASP* "Why would we out real Jera just so he dies?" Because, it takes down one HB down and gives us a 50% chance, based on which setup this is, of Scout giving us another night's worth of investigation.)

If none comes, we do not lynch a Legion player that we know to be Legion. That's just silly.

By the way, I continue to dislike Fetyukov's current logic (read: Post #179, and his original vote post #97)... he waits like 10 min. between unvoting SS and re-voting... prime candidate for pressuring.

Oh, and if it is Setup 4, we should consider having Insane Scout claim so we know if Jera is fake or not.

But, as of right now, for all intents and purposes, we should assume SS to be the real Jeraziah. I repeat: we do not lynch an unCC'd Jera claim.

[Yukari]

First of all, no sapling would be dumb enough to claim Jera and not be Jera. SS, if you are NOT Jera and are Legion, you should fess up to this fact ASAP. You'd probably die, but we would be all the wiser for it if you are Legion and prevent our real PRs from outing early.

Second of all, we do not lynch an unCC'd (has not been Counter Claimed) Jera. This would be very dumb.

Third and most importantly, when someone claims a PR that you are, you CC it.

With that said, we await a Counter Claim to SS's Jera claim to proceed with the lynch. If none comes, we do not lynch a Legion player that we know to be Legion.

That's just silly, and I continue to dislike Fetyukov's current logic (read: Post #179, and his original vote post #97)... he waits like 10 min. between unvoting SS and re-voting... prime candidate for pressuring.

Oh, and if it is Setup 4, we should consider having Insane Scout claim so we know if Jera is fake or not.

But, as of right now, for all intents and purposes, we should assume SS to be the real Jeraziah. I repeat: we do not lynch an unCC'd Jera claim.

So if HB claims jere first day, a role that you have, you should CC it? That sounds like a very bad decision to me.

It's like saying that someone should CC scout just because I claimed it and I'm lying. Now you are down a scout during day 2.

[Vexium]

There is another alternative. We move onto someone else without having the claim be CC'd just yet.

Yes, you make sure to CC a PR claim eventually if you are in fact the PR, but it doesn't have to be immediate. I probably should have clarified that.

Either way, we should assume SS to be real Jera for now.

[Smurf3tte]

I'm going to put this out there.

Don't take it to the letter, and decide for yourself... But intuition told me SS was hellbourne and was going to claim Jeraziah before he did.

He claimed Jeraziah, and after thinking about it for a long time, I've decided he's probably Hellbourne. I'm keeping my vote on him, and personally hopes he gets lynched.

I realize this might bite me in the ass, and he may actually be Jera, it is just intuition afterall.

But I also think if he's Jeraziah we have some interesting leads.

[Evil_Andrex]

Our "gutt" feeling never turned out well.

[YawningAngel]

Please tell me why a Sapling about to be lynched WOULDN'T claim Jera? It will attract a Hellbourne kill that he knows the real Jera can shield.

[Smurf3tte]

I have a "gut" feeling from many years of MafiaScum forum games, and EpicMafia games (I don't hold this casual stuff in high regard though), so I feel like my "gut" feelings are more likely to be right.

To be perfectly fair though, that might just be ego. Like I said, I'm just putting my thoughts out there, take it with a grain of salt and decide for yourself.

[Smurf3tte]

Please tell me why a Sapling about to be lynched WOULDN'T claim Jera? It will attract a Hellbourne kill that he knows the real Jera can shield.
Why on earth would a jera protect another jera claim? The real jera would rather the hellbourne killed that claim.

I'm sorry YA but your logic here, while I understand it, is faulty.

[Emiya]

Third and most importantly, when someone claims a PR that you are, you CC it.
Depends on the situation. Revealing a power role in exchange for a dead hellbourne = profit, but it isn't smart when it's possible the person claiming isn't hellbourne to begin with. Basically if he's just desperate.

If he is Jeraziah - he is quite useless to us since he'll just die anyway - but we can move on to lynching someone else right now.

[Evil_Andrex]

Right now I'm just looking on at things on the outside, as what they look like on first looks, I hope by doing that I can find something a tad bit more useful for us.

[Smurf3tte]

Basically you're assuming this:
1. The real Jeraziah knows the fake claim is Legion
2. The real Jeraziah is willing to risk an outed power role such as Scout to protect a fake Jera claim

Fake claiming Jeraziah is possible when you're confirmed inno, but that's the only situation I would say it's viable in.

[Evil_Andrex]

Wait, whos talking to who?...

[Vexium]

I look at it this way: if he is real Jeraziah, he dies tonight regardless. Why bother lynching him? Let the HB show us who he is. If they devo him it's even sillier, because then we know they are trying to cover it up.

Following that logic, if he does not die tonight, then we know who to lynch come Day 2.

In short, there's really no need to waste a lynch on this fake/real Jeraziah right now. Time will tell us who he really is, and rather quickly I believe.

[Vexium]

Depends on the situation. Revealing a power role in exchange for a dead hellbourne = profit

As I said in reply to Yukari, who quoted my unfinished (I like to edit a lot to make it look good :P I don't like to proofread until after posted :P) post, I apologize for making it seem like we should see a CC to Jeraziah right now.

To clarify, if there is a real Jera, DO NOT OUT YOURSELF.

As for what I said earlier, yes, you should always CC a claim if the time is right... but ya, Jera shouldn't out right now... fail of me to even suggest such a thing.

Yea Day 1 CCs to Jera is like the one thing w/ CCs you shouldn't do. My apologies.

[Smurf3tte]

Wait, whos talking to who?...
I was answering YA.

I look at it this way: if he is real Jeraziah, he dies tonight regardless. Why bother lynching him? Let the HB show us who he is. If they devo him it's even sillier, because then we know they are trying to cover it up.

Following that logic, if he does not die tonight, then we know who to lynch come Day 2.

In short, there's really no need to waste a lynch on this fake/real Jeraziah right now. Time will tell us who he really is, and rather quickly I believe.
And the Hellbourne could leave Jera alive, mez him (if a Suc setup), kill scout, then let us lynch Jera.

I'd rather not play WIFOM with the hellbourne about "is SS still alive becauses he's hellbourne, or are the hellbourne trying to trick us into lynching him?"

It's better to cut off a toe, than wait and end up cutting the whole foot off.

[Vexium]

meh what you said is true, cute. guess i'm just not thinking clearly right now.

unvote YawningAngel; vote SpaceSavage

[ElementUser]

Day 1 not even done yet and we're already at 12 pages lol

[ElementUser]

Vexium I saw that ninja-edit.

:silh:

Very sneaky.

[Vexium]

i ninja edit a lot :\ can't you read what i wrote too? lol

i'll be posting the same thing essentially later on regardless :P

EDIT: In light of my realization and understanding of what Smurfette has been saying, you guys should probably not follow the advice I posted 10-15 posts earlier.

[Evil_Andrex]

We are seriously going to top the last one.

[Smurf3tte]

We are seriously going to top the last one.
Feel free to defend SpaceSavage or present a line of argument so far unconsidered.

[Smurf3tte]

I hate these kinds of risks.

If I'm right, (as I think I am) I'll be treated as hero hellbourne slayer, 3 cheers for me.

If it turns out I'm wrong, everyone will all be "omgggg nooooob" and I'll be like: ":["

[Emiya]

Thing is, if he is Jeraziah we could be finding some information out by lynching someone else.

Meh. I guess it's risk vs risk, I'll go with you guys on this one.

Lynch SpaceSavage

[Evil_Andrex]

Feel free to defend SpaceSavage or present a line of argument so far unconsidered.

I meant post count.

[Emiya]

I hate these kinds of risks.

If I'm right, (as I think I am) I'll be treated as hero hellbourne slayer, 3 cheers for me.

If it turns out I'm wrong, everyone will all be "omgggg nooooob" and I'll be like: ":["
Blaming you with that logic would be stupid. *shrug*

I do find it funny that nearly every single game we end up having a powerrole killed off by day 2.

[Smurf3tte]

I'm killing myself with paranoia.

[Evil_Andrex]

That's what happened to me last game... For the first few days, all I did was sit and think about werewolf all day.

[Evil_Andrex]

But then I just reduced myself to just looking at obvious things....

[YawningAngel]

We need Jeraziah to save our "Scout" anyway, so let's just kill SpaceSavage. Not like I like the guy anyway

[Yukari]

I'm killing myself with paranoia.

Did someone say Paranoia?

http://otakoolblog.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/lilslugger.jpg

[Smurf3tte]

Yeah, I'm sorry I don't know who that is.

[ElementUser]

Neither do I.

Enlighten us, almighty Yukari of the Touhou.

[Smurf3tte]

Neither do I.

Enlighten us, almighty Yukari of the Touhou.
Enlighten us with your thoughts on the state of the game, and stop actively lurking ElementUser.

[Lucian01]

I beleive that's the 9 votes to lynch savage. I sure do hope he doesn't actually turn out to be a power role.

[ElementUser]

Enlighten us with your thoughts on the state of the game, and stop actively lurking ElementUser.

But I'm only here because of Yukari; you know that right? Oh and I'm a bit bored too.

I don't really have an opinion other than the SpaceSavage thing. Anyway, things will be more clear after the first player gets lynched and then I can provide more enlightenment.

:glac:

[Yukari]

That would be lil slugger, from the show Paranoia Agent. He is but a projection of everyone's imagination onto a antagonist in time of great stress and guilt.

[Vexium]

TOO BAD THOSE TWO EPISODES WERE TOTALLY IRRELEVANT AND FILLER OR ELSE THAT WOULDVE BEEN THE BEST ANIME EVER. But it stills kicks a great deal of ass. I am still distraught over the fact we might be lynching Jera here :\ but as we've discussed, this is indeed the best option we have.

[Smurf3tte]

**** that Jeraziah guy, don't even like him anyways.

[MichaelBurge]

I'm with smurf; lynch our Jeraziah.

Vote maintained.


but allow me to point this out right now: MichaelBurge is not speaking in the same tone as last game. Be wary of this fact and see how he conducts himself further.

Last game I rode in as your Messiah like the second coming of Jesus; now, I'm setting up my Millennial Kingdom.

[GrimmShado]

Well, legion power roles have an history of uselessness. Ex: last time jera protected a hb until he was killed.

However best case scenario he's hb, worst case he's a sapling (i do not believe he is a power role).

Still uncertain, but hell... Vote SpaceSavage

[Bobble]

no no no no, we don't vote off Savage, no no no no. Pull your votes off of him. From what i've gathered, he is the uncced Jera. DO NOT KILL HIM. Pul votes of now. At this point, he is basically Jera. Yes, hb may kill him, but that's interesting to note. If we have a Keeper, we can get a Hellbourne, and Scout gets a free night where hes not going to die and gives us a night's worth of info. WE NEED JERA ALIVE! PULL YOUR VOTES OFF NOW. let hb kill him, we know that's gonna happen, but lets not do their job for them. some of you are seriously being duped. Please, kill someone else. PULL YOUR VOTES OFF NOW!

[Bobble]

god damn it, why do I have to sleep, yes, sacrifice our Jera to the hb, but don't kill him off ourselves, please before Vahn comes back, pull off your votes! Don't be retarded and kill our Jera!

[Lucian01]

Pretty sure unvoting when we've surpassed the needed votes isn't allowed?