Scout - Flayer? Opinions?

[Darksplatter]

If you haven't noticed already:

Scouts disarm is NOT a critical strike ability, you will be able to get the 20% 2.2x critical strike from flayer AS WELL AS the 25% chance to do the +100% damage. So you can double up on the extra damage, but here's the sprinkles: If you get a Disarm and a Flayer in the same hit it will do a 4.4x Critical strike... Couple this with the Invisibility rune and the Assassins shroud tactic

Mentioned here:
http://forums.heroesofnewerth.com/showthread.php?t=23453

If you cant be bothered scout basically gets his flurry breaking any means of invisibility like runes and assassins shroud.


I'll just do some basic Theory right here EDIT: My math has been corrected by people more numerically minded.

25% For a Double Damage strike.

20% For a 2.2x Damage Critical hit

20% of that 25% chance so you have a 5% chance to get an 4.4x Hit

If you use the tactic with the invisibility rune and assassins shroud:

.05 x 12 = 0.6

So 60% of those 12 attack bursts will give you a 4.4x Critical strike.

Without Shroud = 0.05 x 8 = 0.4 or 40%

Without Rune or Shroud - 0.05 x 4 = 0.2 or 20%

My Question to you: What is your opinion, Is this a viable Item on scout now? Or is the fairly low chance you'll inflict a 4.4x Crit on an enemy hero not worth the price of the item?

[PoopyDesires]

Posted something about this on mechanics. As you know, after all the testing I found the 4.4x crit worth the extra gold, especially when paired with an SoR for instant life filling.

[Travakh]

Gonna walk though some math comparing critstick to MKB on scout, but first off the 60% is inaccurate, probabilities don't work that way. There's a 19/20 (95%) chance the hit will not crit+disarm, so multiply that by itself 12 times yields 0.54, meaning the chance of at least one crit+disarm 4.4x strike is actually 46% in that 12 hit sequence. Still decently high but will only work half the time assuming you both picked up shroud and had an invis rune

Anyway, assuming scout hits for 100 damage each hit.

Pick up a flayer, so now he hits for 175. Disarm thus 'crits' for 350, basic flayer crits for 385, 'double crit' for 770. This means that the average per hit damage is going to be 175*1.25 (25% overall boost from a disarm proc)*1.24(24% overall damage boost from the crit chance) = 271.25 average damage per hit.

Now instead of flayer pick up an MKB. MKB procs damage independently from the main attack damage so it doesnt improve disarm. Scout with MKB now hits for 180, disarms for 360, with independent additional 100 damage on 35% proc (i.e. on average 35 damage per hit)

With disarm his average damage per hit goes to 225, add flat 35 and it goes to 260.

Huh, flayer does win out. /shrug

[ChromeX1]

i tried scout in a practice game equipping him a flayer and it works wonders with his disarm ability especially with high atk speed.

[Knobby]

I'll just do some basic Theory right here:

25% For a Double Damage strike.

20% For a 2.2x Damage Critical hit

20% of that 25% chance so you have a 5% chance to get an 4.4x Hit

If you use the tactic with the invisibility rune and assassins shroud:

.05 x 12 = 0.6

So 60% of those 12 attack bursts will give you a 4.4x Critical strike

Bad math.

I'm assuming the 5% for 4.4x hit is correct, but that's a weak assumption, because I have no idea what the rules are for the probability of crits in the game. But assuming that, if you have a 5% chance on a swing for 4.4x, and you swing 12 times, you have a 60% that one of those 12 swings will be a 4.4x. Not each of them. Think about it this way, 5% chance on one swing is 1/20. You swing 12 times, that's 12/20, which is 60%.

The other percentages you listed after follow the same pattern.

[RogerDodger]

Nonetheless, you try doing that against any half decent players and they will rape you before you hit them.

You will expend all your $$ on this, so you will have **** for health.

[Travakh]

Bad math.

I'm assuming the 5% for 4.4x hit is correct, but that's a weak assumption, because I have no idea what the rules are for the probability of crits in the game. But assuming that, if you have a 5% chance on a swing for 4.4x, and you swing 12 times, you have a 60% that one of those 12 swings will be a 4.4x. Not each of them. Think about it this way, 5% chance on one swing is 1/20. You swing 12 times, that's 12/20, which is 60%.

The other percentages you listed after follow the same pattern.

While your quoted example was bad math, yours is just as bad. There's no 100% guarantee of a 4.4x hit after 20 swings, so your logic doesn't work. It's 46% for at least one 4.4x proc on a 12 swing sequence as I wrote out earlier.

[Nightprowler]

Bad math.

I'm assuming the 5% for 4.4x hit is correct, but that's a weak assumption, because I have no idea what the rules are for the probability of crits in the game. But assuming that, if you have a 5% chance on a swing for 4.4x, and you swing 12 times, you have a 60% that one of those 12 swings will be a 4.4x. Not each of them. Think about it this way, 5% chance on one swing is 1/20. You swing 12 times, that's 12/20, which is 60%.

The other percentages you listed after follow the same pattern.

hmm, your math is off. what that means is in 100 swings you will have 5 that are 4.4x not 60 in 100
thats following your math.
meaning out of 12 swings you have a .6% chance to have 1 4.4x attack

[crayze]

el oh el, probability is hard

1/4 hits are double damage
1/5 hits are crits
thus 1/20 hits are double damage crits (=4.4x)

this means that 95% of the time when you hit once, you will not double damage crit
.95^n is the chance that you will not double damage crit even once in n attacks.
1 - (.95^n) is the chance that you will get at least one double damage crit in n attacks

but yes, flayer is a good item on scout when you have satisfied your hp and mana needs